← What Went Wrong 1962-2025

Compare

The same sky holds three different safety records. Pick any two of the three FAR operating-rule worlds and read them side by side - cadence, per-year counts, cause distribution, phase of flight, and who walks away. Every distribution is drawn on a shared scale, so the bar lengths themselves are the comparison across the gutter. No live picker means no JavaScript: the two panels switch on pure CSS.

What this compares - and how honest each figure is

Every figure here is real. The counts - accidents per year, fatal cadence, occupant survival - are counted straight from CAROL, and so is the phase-of-flight chart: the share of each world's accidents that involved a given phase (2014-2023), so the bars overlap and do not sum to 100%. The cause chart is the NTSB's own defining-occurrence coding from the bulk accident database: Part 91 and Part 135 the full fatal record over 2014-2023, Part 121 the landmark-case corpus this file carries. The rates per 100k hours run against real flight-hours - general aviation and Part 135 from the FAA activity survey, Part 121 from the NTSB air-carrier statistics (its own all-operations count and hours, a slightly broader basis than the US-only accident tally in the cards). Cause categories differ in kind between the worlds - GA is dominated by pilot loss of control, the airlines by machine, systems, and rare events - and the shared axis shows that contrast honestly.

Choose an operating-rule world for each panel

Panel A

Scheduled airlines

14 CFR Part 121
A few percent of the U.S. accident file

The safest way humans have ever moved. Between Colgan Air 3407 (2009) and the Reagan National midair (2025), no U.S. airliner killed a scheduled passenger for roughly sixteen years.

Fatal-accident cadence Years apart 4 fatal in 2014-2023 real
Accidents / year ~26 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 0.16 0.0023 fatal / 100k hrs (NTSB all-ops) real
Occupant survival Most survive many events have zero fatalities real
Probable cause real - Landmark cases in this file - n=14, 1,613 fatalities
Phase of flight real - share of 257 Part 121 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)

General aviation

14 CFR Part 91
Carries almost the entire U.S. accident burden

Private flying carries almost the entire U.S. accident burden - a steady drumbeat of roughly a thousand crashes and a couple hundred fatal ones every year, largely unchanged for decades.

Fatal-accident cadence ~195 / year 2014-2023 avg real
Accidents / year ~1,100 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 5.2 0.9 fatal / 100k hrs real
Occupant survival Often total loss fatal accidents rarely leave survivors real
Probable cause real - share of 1,960 fatal Part 91 accidents, by NTSB defining occurrence (2014-2023)
Phase of flight real - share of 11,120 Part 91 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)

Commuter & air taxi

14 CFR Part 135

Commuter and air-taxi flying sits between the two worlds - tighter oversight than private Part 91, lighter than the scheduled airlines. Its accident counts are real; the cause and phase splits await the same narrative categorization the GA file needs.

Fatal-accident cadence ~8 / year 2014-2023 avg real
Accidents / year ~43 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 1.1 0.2 fatal / 100k hrs real
Occupant survival ~19% fatal share of 2014-2023 accidents real
Probable cause real - share of 80 fatal Part 135 accidents, by NTSB defining occurrence (2014-2023)
Phase of flight real - share of 425 Part 135 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)

Panel B

Scheduled airlines

14 CFR Part 121
A few percent of the U.S. accident file

The safest way humans have ever moved. Between Colgan Air 3407 (2009) and the Reagan National midair (2025), no U.S. airliner killed a scheduled passenger for roughly sixteen years.

Fatal-accident cadence Years apart 4 fatal in 2014-2023 real
Accidents / year ~26 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 0.16 0.0023 fatal / 100k hrs (NTSB all-ops) real
Occupant survival Most survive many events have zero fatalities real
Probable cause real - Landmark cases in this file - n=14, 1,613 fatalities
Phase of flight real - share of 257 Part 121 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)

General aviation

14 CFR Part 91
Carries almost the entire U.S. accident burden

Private flying carries almost the entire U.S. accident burden - a steady drumbeat of roughly a thousand crashes and a couple hundred fatal ones every year, largely unchanged for decades.

Fatal-accident cadence ~195 / year 2014-2023 avg real
Accidents / year ~1,100 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 5.2 0.9 fatal / 100k hrs real
Occupant survival Often total loss fatal accidents rarely leave survivors real
Probable cause real - share of 1,960 fatal Part 91 accidents, by NTSB defining occurrence (2014-2023)
Phase of flight real - share of 11,120 Part 91 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)

Commuter & air taxi

14 CFR Part 135

Commuter and air-taxi flying sits between the two worlds - tighter oversight than private Part 91, lighter than the scheduled airlines. Its accident counts are real; the cause and phase splits await the same narrative categorization the GA file needs.

Fatal-accident cadence ~8 / year 2014-2023 avg real
Accidents / year ~43 2014-2023 avg real
Rate / 100k hrs 1.1 0.2 fatal / 100k hrs real
Occupant survival ~19% fatal share of 2014-2023 accidents real
Probable cause real - share of 80 fatal Part 135 accidents, by NTSB defining occurrence (2014-2023)
Phase of flight real - share of 425 Part 135 accidents involving each phase (2014-2023; overlaps)
Every figure real - NTSB record + FAA / NTSB flight hours

Set: the three FAR operating-rule worlds that carry U.S. civil aviation. The airline cause chart is the real notable-case corpus behind Two Industries; Phase of Flight and Probable Cause are counted from the NTSB record for all three worlds, and every rate runs against real flight-hours. See the Methodology.