The map of the run
Even after inflation is stripped out, the gains are wildly uneven. The mountain west and the Sun Belt ran the hardest; the industrial Midwest and parts of the Northeast barely cleared the cost of living. Deeper brass means a larger real gain.
- < 40%
- 40-60%
- 60-85%
- 85-110%
- 110%+
Hottest: District of Columbia (129%). Coldest: Illinois (15%). US baseline 23%.
All 51 states as a table
| State | Real growth, 2000 | Nominal growth, 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| District of Columbia DC | 129% | 329% |
| Hawaii HI | 116% | 305% |
| Montana MT | 116% | 305% |
| Idaho ID | 113% | 299% |
| Florida FL | 106% | 286% |
| Washington WA | 96% | 268% |
| Maine ME | 90% | 255% |
| Utah UT | 90% | 256% |
| Rhode Island RI | 88% | 251% |
| North Dakota ND | 82% | 241% |
| New Hampshire NH | 82% | 240% |
| Arizona AZ | 81% | 240% |
| Vermont VT | 80% | 237% |
| Oregon OR | 79% | 236% |
| California CA | 78% | 233% |
| Wyoming WY | 76% | 230% |
| Texas TX | 75% | 228% |
| Colorado CO | 72% | 222% |
| Nevada NV | 72% | 222% |
| South Dakota SD | 71% | 220% |
| Tennessee TN | 71% | 220% |
| New Jersey NJ | 70% | 219% |
| New York NY | 70% | 219% |
| Massachusetts MA | 66% | 210% |
| Virginia VA | 64% | 207% |
| Maryland MD | 56% | 191% |
| North Carolina NC | 55% | 191% |
| South Carolina SC | 55% | 190% |
| Delaware DE | 51% | 183% |
| Pennsylvania PA | 51% | 183% |
| Alaska AK | 48% | 177% |
| Georgia GA | 48% | 178% |
| New Mexico NM | 46% | 173% |
| Nebraska NE | 45% | 172% |
| Wisconsin WI | 43% | 168% |
| Missouri MO | 42% | 166% |
| Oklahoma OK | 41% | 165% |
| Connecticut CT | 40% | 161% |
| Minnesota MN | 39% | 161% |
| Kentucky KY | 38% | 158% |
| Arkansas AR | 36% | 155% |
| Alabama AL | 35% | 153% |
| Kansas KS | 35% | 153% |
| Indiana IN | 32% | 147% |
| Iowa IA | 31% | 145% |
| West Virginia WV | 28% | 140% |
| Louisiana LA | 25% | 135% |
| Ohio OH | 23% | 130% |
| Mississippi MS | 22% | 129% |
| Michigan MI | 21% | 127% |
| Illinois IL | 15% | 116% |
Nominal ran. Real walked.
The brass line is the price on the listing. The blue line is that same price measured in constant dollars. The wedge between them is pure inflation - the part of the run that bought no extra house at all.
Nominal prices multiplied 8.8x since 1975; in constant dollars the same houses grew barely 1.4x. The two lines only truly part after 2000 - before that, for a quarter century, real prices simply tread water.
Index values by year
| Year | Nominal | CPI | Real |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 1980 | 158.6 | 153.2 | 103.5 |
| 1985 | 173.7 | 200 | 86.9 |
| 1990 | 236.3 | 242.9 | 97.2 |
| 1995 | 293.5 | 283.3 | 103.6 |
| 2000 | 373.3 | 320.1 | 116.6 |
| 2005 | 472.8 | 363 | 130.2 |
| 2010 | 420.6 | 405.4 | 103.8 |
| 2015 | 441.3 | 440.5 | 100.2 |
| 2020 | 553.4 | 481 | 115 |
| 2025 | 858.9 | 599.4 | 143.3 |
| 2026 | 880.4 | 613.4 | 143.5 |
Fifty years, one honest decade
Break the run into decades and the illusion falls apart. Nominal prices gained double digits in every era - but adjusted for inflation, houses went essentially nowhere until the 2010s.
Only the the 2020s so far delivered a real gain worth the name - +25%. In the 1980s, real values actually fell while sticker prices rose by half. The gap between the two bars in every decade is the part of the run that was purely the dollar losing weight.
Decade figures as a table
| Decade | Real | Nominal |
|---|---|---|
| Late 1970s | +4% | +59% |
| The 1980s | -6% | +49% |
| The 1990s | +20% | +58% |
| The 2000s | -11% | +13% |
| The 2010s | +11% | +32% |
| The 2020s so far | +25% | +55% |
The metros that actually ran
Ranked by real gain - what a house bought over and above inflation since 2000. The brass bar is the real run; the faint figure at its tip is the nominal headline, the number that made the news.
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL tops the list at +180% real - yet its nominal headline was +425%. The gap between those two numbers, repeated down the whole board, is how much of the American housing story is really a story about the dollar.
The boom was broad, but uneven
The blockbuster metros are a tail, not the whole story. Sort every metro by how far its prices ran past inflation since 2000 and the crowd sits in a solid middle - real gains everywhere, but far short of the coastal headlines.
Only 14 metros - the coastal and sun-belt names you already know - ran off the chart above 120% real. But not one metro lost ground to inflation: even the weakest 67 still gained under 25% real. The typical American metro sits in that broad, unglamorous middle band.
Four ways a price can move
A national average hides four completely different rides. Each panel is one metro's real price path since 2000, on a shared scale - the runaway, the crash, the flatline, and the late bloomer.
real index, 2000 = 100
real index, 2000 = 100
real index, 2000 = 100
real index, 2000 = 100
All four begin at 100 in 2000 and share one vertical scale, so a taller line genuinely ran further. The thin rule marks even-with-2000; every dip below it is a stretch of years when a home lost real value. Boise and San Jose more than doubled; Cleveland never left the runway.
Prices went one way, paychecks another
If houses and wages had climbed together, every metro would sit on the diagonal. Instead 319 of the 335 metros shown fall below it - real prices outran real incomes. Nationally, prices rose 33% against a 13% income gain over the same window.
The vertical distance from each dot up to the parity line is the affordability gap a local buyer had to jump. It is widest in Homosassa Springs, FL, where real prices ran 85 points past local incomes. The exceptions sit above the line - a few high-cost coastal metros where prices had already stalled and paychecks edged ahead.
All 335 metros as a table
| Metro | Real price | Real income | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homosassa Springs, FL | +97% | +12% | 85 |
| Coeur d'Alene, ID | +96% | +21% | 75 |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | +86% | +15% | 71 |
| Boise City, ID | +96% | +26% | 70 |
| Sebring, FL | +91% | +23% | 68 |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | +89% | +22% | 67 |
| Idaho Falls, ID | +86% | +19% | 67 |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | +85% | +21% | 64 |
| Pocatello, ID | +77% | +14% | 63 |
| Punta Gorda, FL | +79% | +16% | 63 |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | +82% | +21% | 61 |
| Ocala, FL | +76% | +15% | 61 |
| Bozeman, MT | +82% | +22% | 60 |
| Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | +76% | +16% | 60 |
| West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL | +76% | +18% | 58 |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | +78% | +20% | 58 |
| Twin Falls, ID | +77% | +19% | 58 |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | +81% | +25% | 56 |
| Sherman-Denison, TX | +70% | +14% | 56 |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | +72% | +17% | 55 |
| Helena, MT | +56% | +1% | 55 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | +72% | +17% | 55 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV | +66% | +11% | 55 |
| Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL | +66% | +12% | 54 |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ | +67% | +13% | 54 |
| Flagstaff, AZ | +60% | +8% | 52 |
| Jacksonville, FL | +67% | +15% | 52 |
| Muskegon-Norton Shores, MI | +67% | +15% | 52 |
| Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | +70% | +19% | 51 |
| Ogden, UT | +71% | +20% | 51 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | +66% | +15% | 51 |
| Gainesville, FL | +57% | +7% | 50 |
| St. George, UT | +67% | +17% | 50 |
| Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, TX | +60% | +10% | 50 |
| Killeen-Temple, TX | +54% | +4% | 50 |
| Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL | +73% | +24% | 49 |
| Kennewick-Richland, WA | +62% | +13% | 49 |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | +61% | +12% | 49 |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | +69% | +21% | 48 |
| Wilmington, NC | +65% | +17% | 48 |
| Athens-Clarke County, GA | +69% | +21% | 48 |
| Gainesville, GA | +66% | +18% | 48 |
| Tacoma-Lakewood, WA | +72% | +25% | 47 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | +70% | +23% | 47 |
| Knoxville, TN | +66% | +19% | 47 |
| Lewiston-Auburn, ME | +57% | +10% | 47 |
| Missoula, MT | +65% | +19% | 46 |
| Salt Lake City-Murray, UT | +65% | +19% | 46 |
| Longview-Kelso, WA | +66% | +20% | 46 |
| Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, SC | +63% | +17% | 46 |
| Tucson, AZ | +60% | +14% | 46 |
| Traverse City, MI | +64% | +18% | 46 |
| Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA | +64% | +19% | 45 |
| Savannah, GA | +60% | +15% | 45 |
| Pueblo, CO | +62% | +17% | 45 |
| Fort Wayne, IN | +53% | +8% | 45 |
| Charleston-North Charleston, SC | +64% | +20% | 44 |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | +60% | +16% | 44 |
| Albany, OR | +69% | +25% | 44 |
| Carson City, NV | +61% | +17% | 44 |
| Salem, OR | +63% | +19% | 44 |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI | +60% | +16% | 44 |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA | +66% | +23% | 43 |
| Morristown, TN | +57% | +14% | 43 |
| Spartanburg, SC | +56% | +13% | 43 |
| Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT | +64% | +22% | 42 |
| Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX | +57% | +15% | 42 |
| Colorado Springs, CO | +58% | +16% | 42 |
| Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ | +44% | +2% | 42 |
| Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN | +42% | 0% | 42 |
| Sheboygan, WI | +45% | +4% | 41 |
| Bellingham, WA | +59% | +19% | 40 |
| Bend, OR | +70% | +30% | 40 |
| Wenatchee-East Wenatchee, WA | +57% | +17% | 40 |
| Kingston, NY | +48% | +8% | 40 |
| Grand Junction, CO | +53% | +13% | 40 |
| Waco, TX | +58% | +18% | 40 |
| Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | +58% | +18% | 40 |
| Brunswick-St. Simons, GA | +54% | +14% | 40 |
| Jacksonville, NC | +48% | +8% | 40 |
| Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC | +56% | +17% | 39 |
| Columbus, OH | +50% | +11% | 39 |
| Jackson, TN | +49% | +10% | 39 |
| Mansfield, OH | +46% | +7% | 39 |
| Asheville, NC | +58% | +20% | 38 |
| Johnson City, TN | +50% | +12% | 38 |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | +56% | +18% | 38 |
| Rapid City, SD | +46% | +9% | 37 |
| Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL | +53% | +16% | 37 |
| Walla Walla, WA | +55% | +19% | 36 |
| Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA | +58% | +22% | 36 |
| Portland-South Portland, ME | +54% | +18% | 36 |
| Reno, NV | +60% | +24% | 36 |
| Manchester-Nashua, NH | +46% | +10% | 36 |
| Santa Fe, NM | +43% | +7% | 36 |
| Hinesville, GA | +44% | +8% | 36 |
| Tallahassee, FL | +44% | +8% | 36 |
| Springfield, MO | +47% | +11% | 36 |
| Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC | +52% | +16% | 36 |
| Rome, GA | +53% | +17% | 36 |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | +55% | +20% | 35 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | +44% | +9% | 35 |
| Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY | +43% | +8% | 35 |
| El Centro, CA | +42% | +7% | 35 |
| Eau Claire, WI | +46% | +11% | 35 |
| Janesville-Beloit, WI | +50% | +15% | 35 |
| Appleton, WI | +42% | +7% | 35 |
| Columbia, SC | +38% | +3% | 35 |
| Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI | +40% | +5% | 35 |
| Elkhart-Goshen, IN | +42% | +7% | 35 |
| Kahului-Wailuku, HI | +45% | +11% | 34 |
| Yakima, WA | +52% | +18% | 34 |
| Greeley, CO | +54% | +20% | 34 |
| Auburn-Opelika, AL | +37% | +3% | 34 |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN | +47% | +13% | 34 |
| Yuba City, CA | +50% | +17% | 33 |
| Vineland, NJ | +33% | 0% | 33 |
| Winston-Salem, NC | +46% | +13% | 33 |
| Fond du Lac, WI | +36% | +3% | 33 |
| Cheyenne, WY | +32% | 0% | 32 |
| Bangor, ME | +43% | +11% | 32 |
| Yuma, AZ | +47% | +15% | 32 |
| Elizabethtown, KY | +38% | +6% | 32 |
| Lexington-Fayette, KY | +40% | +8% | 32 |
| Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT | +31% | -1% | 32 |
| Oshkosh-Neenah, WI | +41% | +9% | 32 |
| Green Bay, WI | +44% | +12% | 32 |
| Greensboro-High Point, NC | +44% | +12% | 32 |
| Springfield, OH | +40% | +8% | 32 |
| Saginaw, MI | +37% | +5% | 32 |
| Eugene-Springfield, OR | +53% | +22% | 31 |
| Boulder, CO | +44% | +13% | 31 |
| Cleveland, TN | +50% | +19% | 31 |
| Sioux Falls, SD-MN | +40% | +9% | 31 |
| Mobile, AL | +34% | +3% | 31 |
| Flint, MI | +42% | +11% | 31 |
| Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO | +51% | +21% | 30 |
| Fort Collins-Loveland, CO | +49% | +19% | 30 |
| Richmond, VA | +40% | +10% | 30 |
| Huntsville, AL | +46% | +16% | 30 |
| Fayetteville, NC | +34% | +4% | 30 |
| Burlington, NC | +50% | +20% | 30 |
| Barnstable Town, MA | +45% | +16% | 29 |
| Bakersfield-Delano, CA | +36% | +7% | 29 |
| Hanford-Corcoran, CA | +44% | +15% | 29 |
| Merced, CA | +48% | +19% | 29 |
| Grand Island, NE | +33% | +4% | 29 |
| Albuquerque, NM | +38% | +9% | 29 |
| Lincoln, NE | +38% | +9% | 29 |
| Battle Creek, MI | +39% | +10% | 29 |
| Rockford, IL | +33% | +4% | 29 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | +49% | +21% | 28 |
| Rochester, NY | +38% | +10% | 28 |
| Wichita Falls, TX | +35% | +7% | 28 |
| Lawrence, KS | +33% | +5% | 28 |
| Wichita, KS | +32% | +4% | 28 |
| Jackson, MI | +37% | +9% | 28 |
| Bay City, MI | +31% | +3% | 28 |
| Great Falls, MT | +41% | +14% | 27 |
| College Station-Bryan, TX | +40% | +13% | 27 |
| Madison, WI | +36% | +9% | 27 |
| Niles, MI | +36% | +9% | 27 |
| Tulsa, OK | +32% | +5% | 27 |
| Decatur, AL | +39% | +12% | 27 |
| Rocky Mount, NC | +41% | +14% | 27 |
| Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ | +41% | +15% | 26 |
| Corvallis, OR | +45% | +19% | 26 |
| Syracuse, NY | +33% | +7% | 26 |
| Reading, PA | +34% | +8% | 26 |
| Springfield, MA | +30% | +4% | 26 |
| Lebanon, PA | +33% | +7% | 26 |
| Dover, DE | +29% | +3% | 26 |
| Roanoke, VA | +30% | +4% | 26 |
| Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL | +33% | +7% | 26 |
| Topeka, KS | +29% | +3% | 26 |
| Rochester, MN | +33% | +7% | 26 |
| Lansing-East Lansing, MI | +35% | +9% | 26 |
| Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI | +38% | +12% | 26 |
| Trenton-Princeton, NJ | +28% | +3% | 25 |
| Hot Springs, AR | +36% | +11% | 25 |
| Las Cruces, NM | +36% | +11% | 25 |
| St. Cloud, MN | +31% | +6% | 25 |
| Anniston-Oxford, AL | +29% | +4% | 25 |
| Kokomo, IN | +35% | +10% | 25 |
| Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI | +34% | +9% | 25 |
| Lancaster, PA | +37% | +13% | 24 |
| Tyler, TX | +43% | +19% | 24 |
| Corpus Christi, TX | +26% | +2% | 24 |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | +33% | +9% | 24 |
| Farmington, NM | +9% | -15% | 24 |
| Sumter, SC | +29% | +5% | 24 |
| Terre Haute, IN | +26% | +2% | 24 |
| Canton-Massillon, OH | +32% | +8% | 24 |
| Dalton, GA | +53% | +30% | 23 |
| Bowling Green, KY | +35% | +12% | 23 |
| Wausau, WI | +33% | +10% | 23 |
| Muncie, IN | +37% | +14% | 23 |
| Akron, OH | +31% | +8% | 23 |
| Monroe, MI | +28% | +5% | 23 |
| Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA | +50% | +28% | 22 |
| Modesto, CA | +46% | +24% | 22 |
| Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | +27% | +5% | 22 |
| Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA | +33% | +11% | 22 |
| El Paso, TX | +32% | +10% | 22 |
| Bloomington, IN | +37% | +15% | 22 |
| Michigan City-La Porte, IN | +39% | +17% | 22 |
| Gadsden, AL | +27% | +5% | 22 |
| Birmingham, AL | +32% | +10% | 22 |
| Gulfport-Biloxi, MS | +30% | +8% | 22 |
| Kalamazoo-Portage, MI | +38% | +16% | 22 |
| Lima, OH | +31% | +9% | 22 |
| Greenville, NC | +33% | +11% | 22 |
| Ann Arbor, MI | +33% | +11% | 22 |
| Fresno, CA | +45% | +24% | 21 |
| Billings, MT | +32% | +11% | 21 |
| Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC | +47% | +26% | 21 |
| Columbia, MO | +29% | +8% | 21 |
| Jefferson City, MO | +31% | +10% | 21 |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | +44% | +24% | 20 |
| Burlington-South Burlington, VT | +32% | +12% | 20 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | +28% | +8% | 20 |
| Utica-Rome, NY | +32% | +12% | 20 |
| Grants Pass, OR | +42% | +22% | 20 |
| Oklahoma City, OK | +27% | +7% | 20 |
| Joplin, MO-KS | +31% | +11% | 20 |
| Amarillo, TX | +23% | +3% | 20 |
| Warner Robins, GA | +40% | +20% | 20 |
| Toledo, OH | +29% | +9% | 20 |
| Longview, TX | +27% | +8% | 19 |
| Vallejo, CA | +35% | +16% | 19 |
| Lynchburg, VA | +29% | +10% | 19 |
| Columbus, IN | +33% | +14% | 19 |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | +25% | +6% | 19 |
| Kankakee, IL | +21% | +2% | 19 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | +35% | +17% | 18 |
| Gettysburg, PA | +22% | +4% | 18 |
| Erie, PA | +22% | +4% | 18 |
| Fairbanks-College, AK | +11% | -7% | 18 |
| Sandusky, OH | +33% | +15% | 18 |
| Macon-Bibb County, GA | +32% | +14% | 18 |
| Abilene, TX | +32% | +15% | 17 |
| Stockton-Lodi, CA | +46% | +29% | 17 |
| Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA | +27% | +10% | 17 |
| Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA | +24% | +7% | 17 |
| York-Hanover, PA | +27% | +10% | 17 |
| Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | +24% | +7% | 17 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen, TX | +37% | +20% | 17 |
| Lubbock, TX | +23% | +6% | 17 |
| Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | +20% | +3% | 17 |
| Midland, MI | +29% | +12% | 17 |
| Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA | +33% | +17% | 16 |
| Glens Falls, NY | +24% | +8% | 16 |
| Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | +38% | +22% | 16 |
| Pittsfield, MA | +29% | +13% | 16 |
| Binghamton, NY | +18% | +2% | 16 |
| Mankato, MN | +25% | +9% | 16 |
| Owensboro, KY | +27% | +11% | 16 |
| Goldsboro, NC | +28% | +12% | 16 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA | +36% | +21% | 15 |
| San Angelo, TX | +25% | +10% | 15 |
| Visalia, CA | +44% | +29% | 15 |
| Salinas, CA | +40% | +25% | 15 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | +25% | +10% | 15 |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | +18% | +3% | 15 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT | +18% | +3% | 15 |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | +22% | +7% | 15 |
| Florence, SC | +19% | +4% | 15 |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA | +30% | +16% | 14 |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | +21% | +7% | 14 |
| Victoria, TX | +19% | +5% | 14 |
| Bloomington, IL | +13% | -1% | 14 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA | +33% | +20% | 13 |
| Charlottesville, VA | +30% | +17% | 13 |
| New Haven, CT | +22% | +9% | 13 |
| Cedar Rapids, IA | +15% | +2% | 13 |
| Casper, WY | +9% | -3% | 12 |
| Ithaca, NY | +20% | +8% | 12 |
| State College, PA | +20% | +8% | 12 |
| Chambersburg, PA | +20% | +8% | 12 |
| Ames, IA | +22% | +10% | 12 |
| Elmira, NY | +10% | -2% | 12 |
| Jonesboro, AR | +17% | +6% | 11 |
| Medford, OR | +36% | +26% | 10 |
| Anchorage, AK | +7% | -3% | 10 |
| Hattiesburg, MS | +19% | +9% | 10 |
| Iowa City, IA | +13% | +3% | 10 |
| Dothan, AL | +19% | +9% | 10 |
| Chico, CA | +32% | +23% | 9 |
| Dubuque, IA | +17% | +8% | 9 |
| New Orleans-Metairie, LA | +12% | +3% | 9 |
| Parkersburg-Vienna, WV | +14% | +5% | 9 |
| Montgomery, AL | +14% | +5% | 9 |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | +17% | +9% | 8 |
| Odessa, TX | +5% | -3% | 8 |
| Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX | +19% | +11% | 8 |
| Champaign-Urbana, IL | +12% | +4% | 8 |
| Albany, GA | +21% | +13% | 8 |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | +14% | +7% | 7 |
| Harrisonburg, VA | +23% | +16% | 7 |
| Jackson, MS | +10% | +3% | 7 |
| Midland, TX | +12% | +6% | 6 |
| Baton Rouge, LA | +8% | +2% | 6 |
| Manhattan, KS | +9% | +4% | 5 |
| Altoona, PA | +12% | +7% | 5 |
| Johnstown, PA | +9% | +4% | 5 |
| Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA | +11% | +6% | 5 |
| Lawton, OK | +4% | -1% | 5 |
| Decatur, IL | +8% | +3% | 5 |
| Napa, CA | +23% | +19% | 4 |
| Redding, CA | +29% | +25% | 4 |
| Springfield, IL | +7% | +3% | 4 |
| Hammond, LA | +11% | +8% | 3 |
| Valdosta, GA | +20% | +17% | 3 |
| Shreveport-Bossier City, LA | +1% | -2% | 3 |
| Morgantown, WV | +9% | +7% | 2 |
| Williamsport, PA | +8% | +6% | 2 |
| Beckley, WV | +6% | +4% | 2 |
| Peoria, IL | +2% | 0% | 2 |
| Bismarck, ND | +3% | +2% | 1 |
| Oakland-Fremont-Berkeley, CA | +27% | +27% | 0 |
| Laredo, TX | +25% | +25% | 0 |
| Charleston, WV | +1% | +1% | 0 |
| Watertown-Fort Drum, NY | +1% | +2% | -1 |
| Monroe, LA | +2% | +3% | -1 |
| Lafayette, LA | -2% | 0% | -2 |
| Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA | -2% | +1% | -3 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | +22% | +26% | -4 |
| Alexandria, LA | +4% | +8% | -4 |
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | +20% | +25% | -5 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | +21% | +28% | -7 |
| Enid, OK | +2% | +9% | -7 |
| Minot, ND | -7% | +1% | -8 |
| San Rafael, CA | +9% | +19% | -10 |
| Lake Charles, LA | +3% | +14% | -11 |
| San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA | +6% | +32% | -26 |
The paycheck never caught up
Prices did not just beat inflation - in the hottest metros they left local incomes far behind. Each rail runs from a metro's real income growth to its real price growth, 2015 to 2023. In Homosassa Springs, FL prices outran paychecks by 85 points.
Nationally, real prices rose +33% against a +13% income gain since 2015; every metro shown cleared that price pace. The blue income dots do move - paychecks were not flat - but they never kept up with the brass, and the gap is what a local buyer had to absorb.
The run was never a straight line
Behind every long climb is the 2007-2011 bust. Measured in real dollars the fall was brutal and uneven - and for 0 of these ten metros it never fully ended; their 2006 buyers are only now near even.
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL fell the hardest - -54% in real terms - and has never reclaimed its peak. A cumulative chart shows only the ascent; this is the trapdoor underneath it.