The denial map
Plate 01Overall denial rate by stateEvery state, shaded by the share of mortgage applications its lenders turned down. Darker is a harder market to get a yes in. The deepest grades pool across the Deep South - Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama - and reach up through Florida and West Virginia, while the Northern Plains and upper Midwest - the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota - stay palest. Geography is the first cut of the ledger; the sharper cut comes two plates down.
- under 16.7%
- 16.7% - 18.8%
- 18.8% - 20.1%
- over 20.1%
| Hardest to get a yes | Denied | Easiest | Denied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 24.3% | North Dakota | 11.8% |
| Louisiana | 24.1% | Iowa | 13.4% |
| Hawaii | 23.7% | South Dakota | 14.0% |
| West Virginia | 22.8% | Minnesota | 14.2% |
| Florida | 22.6% | Nebraska | 14.3% |
Fifty-one markets, one axis
Plate 02One dot per stateFlatten the map and the country's spread is a factor of more than two: from North Dakota at 11.8% to Mississippi at 24.3%. Most states cluster within a couple points of the 18.8% median - the tail to the right is the story.
The gap, one bar per group
Plate 03Denied · home-purchase sliceNow hold the loan constant. On the same product - first-lien, owner-occupied home purchase - the ledger still sorts its noes by race: Black applicants are turned down 2.1 times as often as White applicants. The dashed rule is the White baseline; everything to the right of it is the gap.
Plate 03 · Real Scale runs 0 - 24% denied; 386,739 Black applications acted upon sit in the slice. A denial rate is not a discrimination verdict - HMDA carries no credit score - but it is the count of who was turned away, and it moves the same direction every year it is measured.
Income doesn't buy parity
Plate 04Denied, by income bandThe reflex explanation for the gap is money. HMDA lets you test it: hold income constant and the gap refuses to close. A Black applicant reporting over $150,000 a year is denied at 9.5% - more than double the 4.2% for a White applicant at the same income, and higher than the 8.1% a White applicant earning $75,000 to $100,000 faces.
Where the gap is widest
Plate 05Top metros · Black - White gapThe national gap is an average of very different cities. Ranked here by the distance from the White denial rate (open dot) to the Black rate (filled) on the same home-purchase slice: Lafayette, LA leads, at 22.9 points, and the Deep South - Louisiana, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama - fills the table.
| # | Metro | White → Black denial rate | Black | White | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lafayette, LA | | 38.2% | 15.3% | +22.9 |
| 2 | Charleston, SC | | 29.6% | 6.7% | +22.9 |
| 3 | Tallahassee, FL | | 32.0% | 9.2% | +22.8 |
| 4 | Florence, SC | | 34.1% | 15.5% | +18.6 |
| 5 | Tuscaloosa, AL | | 32.0% | 13.8% | +18.2 |
| 6 | Jackson, MS | | 29.0% | 11.2% | +17.8 |
| 7 | New Orleans, LA | | 22.9% | 6.1% | +16.8 |
| 8 | Greenville, SC | | 28.0% | 11.3% | +16.7 |
| 9 | Shreveport, LA | | 28.2% | 11.9% | +16.3 |
| 10 | Baton Rouge, LA | | 27.8% | 11.7% | +16.1 |
| 11 | Montgomery, AL | | 25.8% | 10.5% | +15.3 |
| 12 | Spartanburg, SC | | 27.0% | 12.3% | +14.7 |
Plate 05 · Real Only metros with at least 1,000 applications acted upon in each group are ranked, so the comparison holds. In Lafayette, LA, 38.2% of Black applications are turned down against 15.3% of White. Real 2024 HMDA figures.
No metro passes the parity test
Plate 06One dot per metroPut every metro on the same plot: the White denial rate across, the Black denial rate up. Even-handed lending would put a metro on the 1x line. All 28 sit above it, and 20 clear the 2x line - where a Black applicant is more than twice as likely to be turned down as a White one in the same market. Even the narrowest ratio in this set is 1.6x.
Every metro tells its own version of the same story. Pull two of them side by side and read yours.
Compare two metros side by side →Two mortgage markets
Plate 07Product mix of originationsThe denials are only half the sorting. Among the loans that do close, 72.6% of White borrowers' home purchases ride conventional credit - the cheapest kind. For Black borrowers that falls to 42.7%, and government-backed FHA and VA loans, with their insurance premiums and fees, make up most of the difference.
- Conventional
- FHA-insured
- VA-guaranteed
- RHS / other
| Group | Conventional | FHA-insured | VA-guaranteed | RHS / other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian | 87.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| White (non-Hispanic) | 72.6% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 1.4% |
| Hispanic or Latino | 54.4% | 36.7% | 8.3% | 0.5% |
| Black or African American | 42.7% | 40.3% | 16% | 0.9% |
Why the “no”
Plate 08Primary denial reason · share of denialsEvery denial is filed with a reason. Debt-to-income leads by a wide margin - one no in three - then credit history and collateral. Read the list with care: these are the reasons lenders report, not an audit of them, and "collateral" in an appraisal-starved neighborhood is not a neutral word.
Plate 08 · Real Primary reason only (HMDA allows up to four per denial); bars are scaled to the leader and every bar carries its share. Real 2024 shares across all denied home-loan records, DTI first - as published CFPB reporting finds.
What happens to 12 million applications
Plate 09Action taken · all recordsGround the whole page in the raw outcomes. Of a year's ledger, roughly 6.2M applications become loans; millions more are withdrawn by the applicant, filed incomplete, or are loans bought and resold between lenders. The denied slice - about 2.1M decisions - is the one every other plate here reads.
- Originated 6.2M 51.4%
- Purchased / preapproval 1.3M 10.9%
- Withdrawn 1.5M 12.7%
- Denied 2.1M 17.2%
- Approved, not taken 0.35M 2.9%
- Closed incomplete 0.58M 4.8%
Plate 09 · Real One proportional bar, 12.0M records wide. Purchased loans and preapproval requests are held out of every denial rate on this page, so no application is counted twice. Real 2024 counts across all covered records, 50 states and DC.
The market that whipsawed
Plate 10Applications filed per yearThe ledger itself is not steady. Pandemic-era rates swelled it to 23.3M filings in 2021; the 2022 rate shock cut it nearly in half. Keep that whiplash in mind for the next plate - the market's size moved violently, and the gap moved almost not at all.
The gap that won't close
Plate 11Denial rate by group · 2018 - 2024The last plate is the stubborn one. Through the boom, the bust, and a five-point swing in mortgage rates, the oxblood Black line and the ink White line move in lockstep - the shaded distance between them was 10.4 points in 2018 and 10.7 points in 2024. Whatever moves this market, it is not closing the gap.