Where Homes Get Approved
Shade the country by supply rate - housing units authorized per 1,000 residents, not raw count - and a diagonal appears. A dark band of permitting runs from the Mountain West down through the Carolinas and Florida. The palest states are the coastal Northeast and the industrial Midwest: large, established populations clearing remarkably few new homes. Raw counts would hide this; per capita is the lens that makes a big slow state and a small fast one comparable.
- < 3.0
- 3.0 - 4.5
- 4.5 - 6.0
- 6.0 - 8.0
- 8.0 +
Fig. A-01 · Choropleth, 51 jurisdictions, single-hue mauve density ramp. Hover a state for its rate and unit count; the ranked table below carries every value so the reading never rests on colour alone. Census BPS Annual 2025 units over Census Vintage 2024 resident population.
All 51 jurisdictions, ranked (data table)
| State | Per 1,000 | Units | Multifamily | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | 9.0 | 17,944 | 16% | |
| South Carolina | 8.4 | 45,862 | 11% | |
| North Carolina | 7.8 | 86,167 | 23% | |
| Florida | 7.6 | 178,297 | 35% | |
| Utah | 7.6 | 26,775 | 34% | |
| Arizona | 6.8 | 51,532 | 32% | |
| Texas | 6.7 | 210,217 | 29% | |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6,468 | 14% | |
| Tennessee | 6.0 | 43,374 | 24% | |
| Colorado | 5.7 | 33,754 | 46% | |
| Nevada | 5.7 | 18,540 | 31% | |
| South Dakota | 5.7 | 5,305 | 34% | |
| Georgia | 5.5 | 61,196 | 25% | |
| Nebraska | 5.3 | 10,596 | 42% | |
| Arkansas | 5.0 | 15,492 | 25% | |
| Maine | 5.0 | 6,979 | 27% | |
| Montana | 4.6 | 5,258 | 36% | |
| Washington | 4.4 | 34,913 | 43% | |
| Wisconsin | 4.3 | 25,569 | 41% | |
| Indiana | 4.2 | 29,076 | 29% | |
| Iowa | 4.2 | 13,664 | 41% | |
| Oklahoma | 3.8 | 15,513 | 18% | |
| Virginia | 3.8 | 33,094 | 36% | |
| Wyoming | 3.8 | 2,238 | 17% | |
| Alabama | 3.7 | 19,061 | 17% | |
| Minnesota | 3.6 | 20,947 | 36% | |
| New Hampshire | 3.6 | 5,030 | 28% | |
| New Mexico | 3.6 | 7,747 | 16% | |
| Kansas | 3.5 | 10,299 | 23% | |
| Oregon | 3.5 | 14,839 | 33% | |
| Vermont | 3.5 | 2,294 | 38% | |
| Kentucky | 3.3 | 14,940 | 34% | |
| Louisiana | 3.1 | 14,203 | 17% | |
| North Dakota | 3.1 | 2,440 | 25% | |
| Mississippi | 2.9 | 8,405 | 11% | |
| New Jersey | 2.9 | 27,661 | 48% | |
| Missouri | 2.8 | 17,474 | 27% | |
| Ohio | 2.8 | 33,640 | 43% | |
| California | 2.6 | 103,856 | 40% | |
| Hawaii | 2.6 | 3,708 | 29% | |
| District of Columbia | 2.3 | 1,591 | 86% | |
| Michigan | 2.3 | 23,075 | 27% | |
| West Virginia | 2.2 | 3,962 | 4% | |
| Maryland | 2.1 | 13,358 | 27% | |
| Connecticut | 2.0 | 7,273 | 67% | |
| Pennsylvania | 2.0 | 25,709 | 34% | |
| New York | 1.9 | 38,667 | 66% | |
| Massachusetts | 1.7 | 12,477 | 55% | |
| Rhode Island | 1.6 | 1,738 | 29% | |
| Illinois | 1.5 | 18,551 | 34% | |
| Alaska | 1.1 | 848 | 19% |
A Country That Clusters Low
Line the 51 jurisdictions up by how many homes each permits per resident and the shape is lopsided: a thick stack of below-average states, then a thinning above-average tail of fast builders. 30 of 51 sit under the U.S. average; the median jurisdiction (New Mexico) permits about 3.6 per 1,000. The country's housing supply is decided by a small number of outliers.
- Below U.S. average
- At or above average
Fig. A-02 · Each column counts the states whose supply rate falls in that unit-wide band. Bar caps are direct-labelled with the state count. Census BPS Annual data over Census Vintage 2024 population.
The Metro Leaderboard
The same 25 metros, ranked by units permitted per 1,000 residents, each bar split into single-family and multifamily (5+ units) so rank and building shape read at once. The order is the whole argument: the leaders are mid-size Sun Belt and Mountain West metros, and the biggest, costliest coastal names sink to the bottom. Rank runs opposite to price.
- 01 Myrtle Beach, SC 15.8
- 02 Boise City, ID 11.2
- 03 Raleigh-Cary, NC 11.2
- 04 Austin-Round Rock, TX 10.7
- 05 Provo-Orem, UT 9.6
- 06 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 9.5
- 07 Nashville-Davidson, TN 8.9
- 08 Houston-The Woodlands, TX 8.3
- 09 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 7.9
- 10 Charlotte-Concord, NC 7.7
- 11 Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 7.7
- 12 Jacksonville, FL 7.6
- 13 Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 6.6
- 14 Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA 5.3
- 15 Denver-Aurora, CO 5.2
- 16 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 3.9
- 17 Seattle-Tacoma, WA 3.8
- 18 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 3.6
- 19 Washington-Arlington, DC 2.8
- 20 New York-Newark, NY 2.2
- 21 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2.1
- 22 Boston-Cambridge, MA 2.0
- 23 Philadelphia-Camden, PA 2.0
- 24 San Francisco-Oakland, CA 1.7
- 25 Chicago-Naperville, IL 1.7
Fig. A-03 · Bar length is the supply rate; the mauve share is multifamily. Full counts in the table below. Census BPS Annual 2025 units over Census Vintage 2024 population.
Full metro table (units, single, multifamily)
| Metro | Per 1,000 | Total units | Single-fam | Multifamily | Multi % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Beach, SC | 15.8 | 6,511 | 6,418 | 77 | 1% |
| Boise City, ID | 11.2 | 9,438 | 7,970 | 1,218 | 13% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 11.2 | 17,543 | 11,760 | 5,542 | 32% |
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 10.7 | 27,322 | 14,810 | 11,749 | 43% |
| Provo-Orem, UT | 9.6 | 7,304 | 5,395 | 1,695 | 23% |
| Orlando-Kissimmee, FL | 9.5 | 27,845 | 14,198 | 13,463 | 48% |
| Nashville-Davidson, TN | 8.9 | 19,203 | 13,267 | 5,827 | 30% |
| Houston-The Woodlands, TX | 8.3 | 65,075 | 46,219 | 16,385 | 25% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 7.9 | 66,179 | 39,790 | 24,607 | 37% |
| Charlotte-Concord, NC | 7.7 | 22,233 | 16,242 | 5,820 | 26% |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | 7.7 | 39,699 | 23,755 | 14,800 | 37% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 7.6 | 13,455 | 9,512 | 3,700 | 27% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL | 6.6 | 22,747 | 13,596 | 8,771 | 39% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA | 5.3 | 33,670 | 22,065 | 11,052 | 33% |
| Denver-Aurora, CO | 5.2 | 15,948 | 7,477 | 8,195 | 51% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN | 3.9 | 14,516 | 8,868 | 5,342 | 37% |
| Seattle-Tacoma, WA | 3.8 | 15,659 | 6,136 | 8,199 | 52% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL | 3.6 | 23,453 | 5,873 | 16,699 | 71% |
| Washington-Arlington, DC | 2.8 | 17,990 | 10,168 | 7,392 | 41% |
| New York-Newark, NY | 2.2 | 44,444 | 10,477 | 31,550 | 71% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA | 2.1 | 27,242 | 12,883 | 12,525 | 46% |
| Boston-Cambridge, MA | 2.0 | 10,072 | 3,971 | 5,695 | 57% |
| Philadelphia-Camden, PA | 2.0 | 12,900 | 7,256 | 4,935 | 38% |
| San Francisco-Oakland, CA | 1.7 | 7,750 | 2,713 | 4,884 | 63% |
| Chicago-Naperville, IL | 1.7 | 15,778 | 9,497 | 5,324 | 34% |
Bigger Metros Build Less
Plot every metro by population and by supply rate and the dots drift down as they drift right: the largest metros - the New Yorks and Los Angeleses where housing is scarcest and dearest - sit along the floor, while the fastest permitting happens in the smaller Sun Belt boomtowns up the left side. Size is not the constraint. The places with the most people and the most demand authorize the fewest homes per resident.
- Sun Belt boomtown
- Steady
- Supply-frozen
Fig. A-04 · One mark per metro; shape and colour both encode archetype, so the groups read under colour-blindness and in greyscale. Extremes direct-labelled; hover any dot for its figures. Census BPS Annual 2025 units over Census Vintage 2024 population.
Houses or Apartments
Now hold volume constant and ask only about shape. Each bar is one metro's permitted units normalized to 100% and split into single-family, the 2 to 4 unit "missing middle", and multifamily (5+), sorted from most detached at the top to most apartment at the bottom. Sun Belt sprawl and Texas subdivisions anchor one end; the supply-frozen coasts, where almost every new unit is an apartment, anchor the other. Two different housing economies, drawn to the same width.
Bars normalized to 100%. Small segments omit their label; the middle band is the 2 to 4 unit class.
Fifteen Years of Supply
National housing units authorized each year, stacked by building type. The recovery from the 2008 collapse was carried by multifamily nearly as much as single-family - the apartment share crested around 2022, at roughly 39% of all new units. The 2-to-4-unit "missing middle" stayed a rounding error the entire stretch, the housing type America stopped building.
- Single-family (1 unit)
- 2 to 4 units
- Multifamily (5+ units)
Fig. A-06 · Thousands of units authorized nationwide; segment heights are the three building classes. 2025 totalled 1,432k. Source: Census BPS annual state files, summed to national.
Three Tempos of Building
Group the metros by archetype and index each group to its own 2010 level - the bottom of the post-crash trough - and the gap becomes a matter of slope. Every cohort recovered, but not evenly: Sun Belt boomtowns ran to roughly three and a half times their 2010 pace and kept climbing; the steady metros and the supply-frozen coasts each about doubled, then stalled and gave ground after the 2021 peak. Same demand, three different tempos of supply - and the boomtowns pulled decisively away.
Led the recovery out of the 2010 trough and never let up - roughly three and a half times their 2010 pace by 2025.
Doubled off the 2010 bottom, then flattened - a milder arc than the boomtowns, without their late surge.
Also about doubled from the crash low, but from a far smaller base, and gave much of it back after 2021.
Fig. A-08 · Each panel indexes one cohort's total permits to 2010 = 100; the two grey lines repeat the other cohorts for scale. Cohorts are an editorial grouping of the metros; the trajectories are their real summed BPS permits.
The Supply Gap
Here is the whole argument on one axis. Each bar is a metro's distance from the national average of 4.2 units per 1,000 residents - above to the right, below to the left. The fast-permitting Sun Belt and Mountain West metros authorize about 4.7x as many homes per resident as the big coastal metros where demand and prices are highest. Where housing costs the most, the least gets built.
- Above U.S. average
- Below U.S. average
Fig. A-09 · Bars measure each metro's supply rate against the national average; length is the size of the gap, direction is its sign. Census BPS Annual 2025 units over Census Vintage 2024 population.
Every metro vs the U.S. average (data table)
| Metro | Per 1,000 | vs U.S. avg | Total units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Beach, SC | 15.8 | +11.6 | 6,511 |
| Boise City, ID | 11.2 | +7.0 | 9,438 |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 11.2 | +7.0 | 17,543 |
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 10.7 | +6.5 | 27,322 |
| Provo-Orem, UT | 9.6 | +5.4 | 7,304 |
| Orlando-Kissimmee, FL | 9.5 | +5.3 | 27,845 |
| Nashville-Davidson, TN | 8.9 | +4.7 | 19,203 |
| Houston-The Woodlands, TX | 8.3 | +4.1 | 65,075 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 7.9 | +3.7 | 66,179 |
| Charlotte-Concord, NC | 7.7 | +3.5 | 22,233 |
| Phoenix-Mesa, AZ | 7.7 | +3.5 | 39,699 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 7.6 | +3.4 | 13,455 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL | 6.6 | +2.4 | 22,747 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA | 5.3 | +1.1 | 33,670 |
| Denver-Aurora, CO | 5.2 | +1.0 | 15,948 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN | 3.9 | -0.3 | 14,516 |
| Seattle-Tacoma, WA | 3.8 | -0.4 | 15,659 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL | 3.6 | -0.6 | 23,453 |
| Washington-Arlington, DC | 2.8 | -1.4 | 17,990 |
| New York-Newark, NY | 2.2 | -2.0 | 44,444 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA | 2.1 | -2.1 | 27,242 |
| Boston-Cambridge, MA | 2.0 | -2.2 | 10,072 |
| Philadelphia-Camden, PA | 2.0 | -2.2 | 12,900 |
| San Francisco-Oakland, CA | 1.7 | -2.5 | 7,750 |
| Chicago-Naperville, IL | 1.7 | -2.5 | 15,778 |